Travelanalytics company, ForwardKeys, unveils domestic travel has shown a small uptick in the wake of the slowdown caused by COVID-19. However, withyesterday’s news that Beijing has lifted its 14-day quarantine requirement ontravel between the capital and low-risk areas in China, ForwardKeys now expectsa significant uplift.
Olivier Ponti, VP Insights,ForwardKeys, shares, “We have been expecting a jump in domestic flight bookingsto occur as soon as domestic travel restrictions are eased and now that appearsto be happening. It is currently still a little too early to see that trend inour flight data; but we expect to do so in the coming days, especially giventhe imminent Labour Day holiday. While this looks like the emergence of theproverbial ‘green shoots’ of recovery; it is a domestic phenomenon; and Chineseinternational air traffic is still falling.”
Domestic travel in China had come to a near stop in mid-February.In the week of 23-29 February, coinciding with a modest restarting of theeconomy and an increase in domestic air capacity, it jumped by 62.9% over theprior week. It has since grown from a still very low base, by 19.5%, betweenthe first week of March and the third week of April.
The destinations leading thetentative recovery are commercial centres, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai,Sichuan and Yunnan. Travel to Beijing has been extremely weak because thestrictest travel restrictions have been in force in the capital city untiltoday.
Travel to Shenzhen, one ofthe China’s first Special Economic Zones, and to Hainan island, China’stropical holiday getaway in the South China Sea, is likely to be indicative ofthe recovery trend as it develops. In both cases, flight arrivals picked up inthe third week of February, although the base was much lower for Hainan, as aleisure destination, than Shenzhen, which is a commercial centre.
ForwardKeys warns against early optimism as China has imposed restrictions on international flights. Chinese airlines areallowed only to maintain one route per country and one flight per week. Foreignairlines are allowed only one route to China and one flight per week. It isestimated that there will be just 130 international flights to China per weekand a maximum of 5,000 people per day entering and leaving the country.
“We can confirm tiny green shoots of recovery in China’sdomestic aviation market. So, if you are a hotelier with properties andclientele in the right parts of the People’s Republic, you can look forward towelcoming guests again. However, while it is encouraging to see airtravel increasing within China, there is currently no indication that anyone outsideChina can yet look forward to the return of Chinese tourists. So, if you are aluxury goods retailer, seeking to sell to the Chinese market, the reality isthat the only places to do so will be in China," concludes Ponti.
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