India and China reveal contrasting travel patterns for 2025
Low-cost carriers now represent over 75% of India’s domestic travel
Approximately 88% of Chinese and 82% of Indian travelers plan to travel in 2025, according to Skift market research. These two countries lead all global markets in intended travel activity. However, the nature and direction of that travel varies significantly between Asia's two largest source markets.
Indian outbound surge gains momentum
India's outbound market, valued at US$15.2 billion in 2023, is projected to grow at 11.4% annually through 2032. The country's travel sector contributed over US$221 billion to GDP in 2023, nearly 10% above 2019 levels, with projections suggesting this could reach US$500 billion by 2034.
In contrast to Chinese demographics, India's population is young
Several factors are driving this surge. The country's young population (median age 28) and GDP growth between 6-7% have expanded the traveling middle class. In the first half of 2024, 15 million Indians traveled abroad – up 14% year-on-year and up 12% versus 2019. Indian travelers now spend up to US$7,000 per international trip, with total overseas spending reaching US$31.7 billion in fiscal 2024, a 25% increase.
The rise of low-cost carriers, now representing over 75% of India's domestic capacity, has democratized air travel. Meanwhile, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Thailand have waived visa requirements for Indian travelers, recognizing the market's growing value.
China shifts focus to domestic tourism
China's patterns show a different trajectory. International routes have contracted by 43%, with reduced outbound tourism estimated to cost the global travel economy US$130 billion. Economic factors including slower GDP growth have pushed many Chinese toward domestic travel alternatives.
Wealthy Chinese retirees from coastal regions are fueling a surge in “silver tourism,” creating increased travel activity both within China and abroad
However, China's domestic tourism remains robust, with strong rail and air travel growth in 2024. "Silver tourism" has emerged as a notable trend, with affluent retirees from coastal cities driving both domestic and international travel demand.
The divergence is reshaping industry approaches. While high-end brands maintain appeal in both markets, there's increasing demand for family-friendly and authentic experiences. Destinations previously dependent on Chinese visitors are pivoting toward Indian travelers, adapting services to include Indian cuisine, Hindi-speaking staff and culturally resonant marketing.
By 2040, Indian travelers could make 80-90 million trips annually. Asia is also projected to surpass North America in its millionaire population by the mid-2030s, suggesting continued evolution in travel patterns from both markets.
For destinations and travel businesses, success increasingly depends on understanding and adapting to these distinct market dynamics while reducing friction points like visa processes to capture a larger share of Asia's outbound travel growth.
