Blueprint and Rud Pedersen Group highlight geopolitics as defining megatrend
As the world contends with rising geopolitical tension, the travel retail industry is feeling the impact from all sides, from diverted passenger flows and regulatory shifts to currency volatility and disrupted logistics.
Two forward-thinking consultancies, Blueprint and Rud Pedersen Group, have joined forces to share their perspectives on how brands, airports, and retailers can stay resilient and strategically agile in this high-stakes environment.
Rud Pedersen Group (RPG), a leading public affairs consultancy in Europe advises some of the world’s most influential companies on navigating regulatory, political, and reputational landscapes. With offices in 19 European countries and expertise with the European Parliament and national governments, RPG is well-positioned to share insights on how geopolitics are shaping commercial landscapes.
“Geopolitics is no longer a background variable, it’s a dominant megatrend,” said Jonatan Tylsgaard Larsen, Chief Strategy Officer at Rud Pedersen Group. “This isn’t just about reacting to crises, this is about seeing around corners and getting ready for what may come.
“If the last decade taught us anything, it’s that today’s commercial strategies must factor in megatrends and include political foresight to a greater extent. Political decision making can fundamentally affect the prosperity of companies and whole industries, which has been further underlined during 2025.”
Thomas Kaneko Henningsen, Blueprint Partner, added, “At Blueprint we specialize in tracking how megatrends like Gen Z lifestyle, artificial intelligence, social commerce, experiential retail and sustainability are transforming travel retail. We have added geopolitics to this list of megatrends.”
Geopolitics as a Defining Megatrend
A megatrend is a long-term, global shift that profoundly shapes business and society for years or even decades. Geopolitics fits that definition as governments, alliances, and regions realign in real time, the impact on travel retail is undeniable.
Recent developments reflect this reality:
• The biggest threat to the global economy is a full-blown trade war between the USA and China, the two economies account for nearly 45% of world GDP.
• Middle East conflict continues to reroute air corridors and alter consumer flows across Europe and Asia.
• 32 land-border duty-frees in Canada have seen up to 80% decrease in sales this year with most stores experiencing 50-60% drop in business.
• In the UK, the introduction of duty-free shopping on arrival at airports, international rail and ferry terminals would support economic growth as seen in more than 60 countries worldwide.
• US product boycotts are on the rise in Europe.
• In Germany, Europe’s largest market for electric vehicles, sales of Tesla cars fell 60% between January and April this year while newly registered electric vehicles increased by 53% in April compared with a year earlier.
Tesla sales plunged 13% in the first three months of this year, the company’s worst sales in nearly three years.
Travel Retail: Navigating Multiple Megatrends
While geopolitics stands out in urgency, it’s not acting alone. The travel retail marketplace is simultaneously navigating multiple powerful megatrends:
• Consumer Behavior Shifts: The global Gen Z lifestyle and affluent travelers from Southeast Asia, India, and Middle East are shaping a new consumption landscape.
• Experiential Retail: Increasing demand for immersive, memorable and phygital shopping experiences.
• Digital Acceleration: AI-powered hyper-personalization, rise of the Meta-verse, contactless retail and frictionless payments are redefining customer expectations.
• Social Commerce: The hybrid between social media and ecommerce unlocks a new form of global consumerism.
• Green Transparency: Carbon reporting, sustainable packaging, and traceable sourcing are rising in both regulation and brand equity.
• Wellbeing & Health: Post-pandemic priorities continue to influence product choices and travel preferences.
Karl Walt, Blueprint Partner, commented, “The interaction between these megatrends and now geopolitics creates a higher degree of uncertainty and unpredictability. To navigate this constant state of flux, it will require future-proofing the travel retail marketplace using a more multi-dimensional approach.”
Blueprint and Rud Pedersen Group offer geopolitical content that combines macro-level insights, trend analysis, scenario planning and real-world cases that transform the travel retail channel.
