‘Tailwinds & turbulence”: m1nd-set reveals 2025 US Travel Retail outlook
m1nd-set considers key performance indicators in the US travel and travel retail markets
Travel retail research agency m1nd-set’s latest research on the US travel and travel retail market reveals a striking paradox: a surge in outbound US travel coupled with a sharp drop in international inbound tourism to the US.
The Swiss agency presents a comprehensive study exploring the contrasting forces shaping American travel in 2025 and the implications for the global duty free and travel retail industry.
Inbound visitor numbers have fallen sharply, with a 12% year-on-year drop recorded in March and a projected 9% decrease for the full year, the research reveals. This is expected to result in a substantial loss of between US$8.5 billion and US$12.5 billion in foreign visitor spending. The downturn is driven by a mix of geopolitical tension, restrictive immigration policies and negative sentiment abroad.
Additionally, travel advisories and backlash across online travel communities are prompting many potential visitors to choose alternative destinations in Europe and the Americas, according to m1nd-set.
At the same time, the research highlights that outbound international travel from the US is thriving.
Americans now account for 10% of all international departures worldwide, making them the leading nationality for outbound travel, according to m1nd-set’s Business 1ntelligence Service (B1S) data. This trend is supported by favorable exchange rates and a growing desire among Americans to explore global destinations amid growing domestic polarization. The main airports for US international departures are primarily major hubs such as New York JFK, Miami, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Chicago.
Highlighting awareness and interest in pre-ordering services
Americans’ most frequented international airports outside the US include London Heathrow, Cancun, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Mexico City, and Amsterdam.
In terms of travel retail shopping behavior, the research highlights key challenges and opportunities. American travelers are less engaged with duty free shopping than the global average, with lower store visit and conversion rates. The research reveals that US travelers exhibit significantly better conversion rates when shopping in duty free environments outside the USA (68%) versus domestic locations (56%). According to m1nd-set, the research findings expose a clear opportunity for US travel retailers to enhance store appeal and increase shopper conversion.
However, US shoppers remain among the world’s top spenders, averaging US$150 per transaction, placing them third globally behind China and South Korea. This spending potential underscores the need and opportunity, according to m1nd-set, to elevate engagement, especially through improved in-store experiences and more proactive retail strategies.
Emotional drivers, such as store design and a desire to browse and discover the in-store experience, influence spontaneous visits, and impulse buying. A majority (64%) of Americans who visit duty free stores do so spontaneously, largely motivated by store aesthetics, curiosity and the desire to browse to discover the duty free shopping experience, or to pass time, while pre-planning also plays a significant role. Nearly three quarters of US travelers plan their travel retail shopping: 44% say they generally tend to plan to shop at airports, while 30% plan specific purchases, the research reveals.
Americans show stronger interest than global travelers in pre-order and home delivery services. According to the research 73% of US travelers are interested in airport pick-up pre-orders, and 77% would consider home delivery, far surpassing global averages.
Another key area the research focuses on is price sensitivity and promotional value. While 17% of US travelers cite price advantage and another 17% cite promotions as reasons to visit duty free stores, price also remains one of the main barriers to purchase. A high proportion of US shoppers compare prices: 63% of buyers and 56% of non-buyers. According to m1nd-set, this indicates that transparent, competitive pricing and clear value communication are essential. Despite this, 22% of travelers perceive duty free prices as better than downtown or online, and 21% identify “good value for money” as the top purchase driver.
The research also focuses on staff interaction and influence
The research also highlights the decisive role staff play in shaping the travel retail experience for US passengers. Interactions are more frequent and more impactful among American shoppers than global travelers, according to m1nd-set and proactive, knowledgeable sales teams can significantly increase conversions. Poor service or limited product knowledge can act as a major deterrent, however, according to the research.
Owner and CEO at m1nd-set, Dr Peter Mohn, commented, “While American travelers lag behind on engagement metrics like store visits and conversion, they remain a high-value and high-potential segment for the global duty free and travel retail industry. The key to success in enticing American travelers to enter the store and purchase lies in reimagining the shopping journey. Industry stakeholders need to blend emotional connection with digital convenience, offering clearer value, and empowering front-line staff to meet heightened expectations."
“By positioning duty free as a meaningful part of the overall travel experience, not just an afterthought, the industry can turn current underperformance into an opportunity,” he concluded.
