Hot list 2025: ForwardKeys considers Europe’s top picks for US travelers
ForwardKeys looks ahead to this summer's US outbound traveling trends to Europe
Travel intelligence leader ForwardKeys has launched a 12-month forecast for US outbound travel to Europe in summer 2025.
“With US tourists representing the second highest international tourism spend globally – US$158.7 billion in 2023 according to Statista – trailing only Chinese travelers, understanding their travel intentions and emerging trends is of huge economic importance to destinations worldwide,” ForwardKeys states.
Accurately forecasting these trends allows destinations to optimize their marketing strategies, infrastructure, and resource allocation to capitalize on opportunities and mitigate potential downturns.
The cutting-edge 12-month forecast was launched in February by ForwardKeys as part of its Destination Gateway solution. Built on the company’s proprietary Total Air Market algorithm, their accurate forecast now also includes low-cost carriers, which is not typically shared by airlines. This provides a precise, comprehensive, month-by-month picture of the year ahead in air travel, enabling users to anticipate evolving travel trends and predict demand.
Applying the tool to focus on US outbound travel to Europe for Summer 2025 reveals some interesting shifts in travel behavior, with implications for those destinations relying on transatlantic visitors to boost local economies.
According to ForwardKeys’ analysis, the top four destinations from summer 2024 – London, Paris, Rome, and Dublin – are projected to remain the most popular choices for US travelers in 2025. Beyond the top tier, however, more pronounced ranking fluctuations emerge amongst the European destinations.
Shifting preferences for city breaks
Berlin and Porto are both expected to climb three spots, driven by forecast growth of 8% and 9% respectively. Further down the list, Bilbao and Faro will see significant growth, forecast to climb 6 and 15 positions respectively.
While London remains popular with transatlantic visitors, the city is projected to experience a 2% decline in visitor numbers compared to last year. Reykjavik too, despite Icelandair's popular stopover program, is forecast to see a 12% drop in US arrivals.
Helsinki (+16%) and Copenhagen (+3%) are predicted to attract more US tourists this summer, potentially due to increased competition and improved long-haul connectivity. Notably, direct flight capacity between the US and Helsinki has surged by 59%, highlighting growing demand, and a pivot westward following the invasion of Ukraine and the impossibility for Finnish carriers to fly over Russia.
Olivier Ponti, ForwardKeys Director of Intelligence and Marketing, said, “Understanding the evolving travel preferences of US tourists is crucial for destinations looking to optimize their strategies.
“While traditional favorites like London, Paris, and Rome remain strong, we’re seeing notable shifts, such as rising demand for Nordic and secondary European cities. With our latest forecasting capabilities, destinations can anticipate these trends with greater precision, allowing them to adapt marketing, connectivity, and infrastructure plans to capture opportunities and mitigate potential slowdowns.”
