Robust air traffic and conversion fuels Middle East travel retail growth
m1nd-set considers air traffic trends in the Middle East
The Middle East is set to see strong traffic growth over the next three years, spurred by healthy air traffic increases in Saudi Arabia, according to m1nd-set.
Combined with strong conversion rates, this robust air traffic is fueling regional travel retail growth.
Research recently published by the Swiss travel retail agency reveals that air traffic across the region grew by 7% in 2024 and will continue to see stable year-on-year increases of around 6% over the next three years. The report, which analyses air traffic for the Middle East also provides a regional overview of shopper behavior among duty free buyers, comparing three key markets, namely Dubai, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
The region’s top airport for international traffic, Dubai, is expected to see around 5% annual growth over the next three years, according to m1nd-set. Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah and Riyadh airports, in second and third place for international traffic in the Middle East, both experienced double-digit air traffic growth in 2024, up by 11.5% and 13.5% respectively on 2023 traffic to approximately 51 million international passengers in Jeddah and 41 million in Riyadh. Their strong growth trajectory is set to continue over the next five years and by 2030, international traffic in Saudi Arabia will have nearly doubled from the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
The research also provides an analysis of the share of traffic to the Middle East by world region and by nationality, revealing that Saudi Arabia is the major source of international passengers across the region. Saudi nationals accounted for 73 million departures in 2024, just under 20% of the region’s air traffic. Indians form the second-largest nationality, with 13% of international passengers to and from the Middle East.
Middle East demographics and travel behavior
Buyer behavior in the Middle East
The buyer behavior analysis part of m1nd-set’s Middle East research reveals that the region enjoys strong conversion among visitors to the Duty Free shops, with around seven out of ten visitors making a purchase. Conversion in Dubai is in line with the regional average, while in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, conversion is slightly lower but strong nevertheless at more than 60% in each market. The strong conversion in the Middle East is underpinned by healthy dwell time in airports across the region, exceeding two hours for nearly eight out of ten travelers across the region.
Other key findings which emerge from the research include the demographics of the Middle East Duty Free buyer.
Males tend to be the more dominant shopper in the region, with a 54% share of Duty Free buyers, and an even greater imbalance among Gen Zs (64%) and in Saudi Arabia (59%). The research also provides travel purpose and travel class data for each of the markets, revealing that, on average, one quarter of Duty Free buyers in the Middle East travel in premium classes.
Qatar enjoys the highest share, at 33%, followed by Saudi Arabia with 29%. Dubai sees the lowest share of premium class travelers among buyers at 23%.
Top drivers to purchase in the Middle East
Experience vs price
The global trend m1nd-set has observed in Duty Free shopper behavior over recent months, namely that consumers are placing greater importance on the overall shopping experience in store over price advantage, is equally prevalent in the Middle East, according to the research.
While Duty Free purchasing decisions across the Middle East are primarily influenced by value, convenience, brand appeal, and personal indulgence, price advantage as a purchase driver is declining in importance. More experiential aspects such as differentiation, trendiness, packaging, uniqueness, experience, and self-indulgence play a more dominant role in influencing the purchase decision, according to m1nd-set.
Brand loyalty and trendy brands are both among the key factors influencing the decision to purchase across the Middle East. Trendy brands are of particular importance to shoppers in Saudi Arabia, considerably higher than the regional average.
m1nd-set owner and CEO Dr Peter Mohn commented on the importance of curating an engaging shopping environment to capitalize on this trend. “Given the share of Duty Free buyers who we categorize as ‘undecided planners’, and those who purchase on impulse, we see that the majority of buyers - more than 70% - make their final decision to purchase only once inside the Duty Free stores,” he said.
“This is particularly the case in Saudi Arabia where nearly eight out of ten shoppers make their purchase decision while inside the store. This spontaneous in-store shopping behavior highlights the importance of experiential retail and the instore environment as an influencing decision-making factor.
“As well as the influencers, we place significant importance on the barriers to purchase among visitors to the Duty Free shops in our research at m1nd-set” Mohn added.
“Given the barriers highlighted by the ‘non-shoppers’ in the region, we highly recommend that pre-travel communications to travelers in the Middle East emphasize the opportunities to purchase unique and exclusive products and provide clear indications on customs regulations. We also strongly urge stakeholders to address the concerns of passengers who are anxious about time constraints and overcrowded stores; we recommend they rethink the retail model with a greater focus on convenience, store layouts, pre-order and collect options, to further boost conversion," he concluded.
